Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
